![]() an increased focus on the third world, where climate change will matter most.a balance of potential positive and negative social effects during climate change.a reconsideration of the types of violence expected to result from climate change.a tighter pairing of climate change models and conflict models.a disentangling of the causal chains between climate change and conflict.Unfortunately in the absence of peer-reviewed sources, the IPCC fell prey to the temptation to cite occasional ‘grey material’, particularly in the chapter on Africa.įour years ago, in a summary of research on climate change and conflict, I outlined five priorities for future research in this area: Predictably, this report had little to say about the security implications of climate change. On the question of the security implications of climate change, where little research had been done prior to its most recent report (2007), the IPCC had a poor basis for an assessment. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) is not a research institute its task is to review and assess existing work. But uncertainty continues about many of the physical consequences of climate change and even more so about the social effects. There is increasing agreement that the world is warming and that there is a significant man-made contribution. ![]() However, to date there is little evidence that the meteorological or agricultural conditions associated with climate change are actually a major source of violence. In this way, so the story goes, climate change will produce famine and mass migration that threatens political stability and provokes violence. Could climate change reverse this trend? Pundits and politicians have raised the specter of havoc caused by rising temperature, erratic patterns of rainfall, and rising sea levels. ![]() Violence is on the wane in human affairs, even if slowly and irregularly.
0 Comments
Leave a Reply. |
AuthorWrite something about yourself. No need to be fancy, just an overview. ArchivesCategories |